The 70-gene signature (MammaPrint) is a prognostic test used to guide adjuvant treatment decisions in patients with node-negative breast cancer. In order to decide upon its use, a systematic comparative analysis of the effects of the 70-gene signature,the Saint Gallen guidelines and the Adjuvant Online Software for these patients on survival, quality of life and costs is warranted.
A Markov decision model was used to simulate the 20-year costs and outcomes (survival and quality-of-life adjusted survival (QALYs)) in a hypothetical cohort of nodenegative, estrogen receptor positive breast cancer patients. Sensitivity and specificity of the three prognostic tools were based on 5 and 10 years breast cancer specific survival and distant metastasis as first event, derived from a pooled analysis consisting of 305 tumour samples from 3 previously reported validation studies concerning the 70-gene signature.
Small differences in survival, but substantial differences in quality-adjusted survival between the prognostic tools were observed. Quality-adjusted survival was highest when using the 70-gene signature. Based on costs per QALY, the 70-gene has the highest probability of being cost-effective for a willingness to pay for a QALY higher than €4600. 0959-8049/$